Summary: The EV battery recycling market is expected to grow dramatically over the next decade, but projections vary wildly depending on who you ask. Behind the big numbers, real companies are building actual infrastructure to recover valuable metals from spent batteries.
Research and Markets projects the global EV battery recycling market will grow from $0.54 billion in 2024 to $23.72 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 40.9%. That is an enormous jump. But before you take that figure as gospel, you should know something important.
Why Market Forecasts for EV Battery Recycling Are All Over the Place
Different research firms cannot seem to agree on much of anything in this space. The Business Research Company values the market at $3.82 billion in 2025, heading to $12.77 billion by 2030 at a 27.2% CAGR. InsightAce Analytic puts 2025 at $1.18 billion, with a path to $34.94 billion by 2035 at a 40.5% CAGR. Global Growth Insights offers yet another set of numbers, citing $3.07 billion in 2025 and $67.21 billion by 2035.
So what is going on here? These firms likely define the market differently, use different base years, and draw on different data sources. The honest answer is that nobody knows the exact size of this market right now, let alone a decade from now.
But here is what we can actually trust.
What Is Getting Recycled, and How Much Can Be Recovered?
The batteries coming through recycling facilities come from three main sources: end-of-life EV batteries, manufacturing scrap from gigafactories, and warranty or recall returns. Right now, manufacturing scrap probably makes up a significant chunk of material, since most EVs on the road still have years of life left.
The chemistries involved span lithium-ion variants like NMC and NCA, along with LFP, LMO, NiMH, and emerging chemistries. NMC batteries hold the prominent market share in recycling forecasts, which makes sense given their widespread use in passenger EVs.
The real reason this industry matters comes down to what recyclers can pull out. Through NMC battery recycling processes, facilities can recover valuable metals like nickel, cobalt, and manganese for reuse in new batteries. Companies are adopting advanced techniques like hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical methods to boost those recovery rates and meet quality standards for recycled materials.
Three Main Approaches
Recyclers generally rely on pyrometallurgical, hydrometallurgical, or direct recycling and physical separation processes. The fact that multiple approaches exist suggests the industry is still figuring out which is most efficient at scale.
Real Companies Are Building Real Infrastructure Now
Forecasts are easy to print. Plants are harder to build. And that is where things get interesting.
In January 2024, Iveco Group picked BASF as its first partner to provide a recycling solution for lithium-ion batteries. That is a major commercial vehicle maker tying itself to one of the world's largest chemical companies for battery recycling.
Toyota Motor North America has also been investing in recycling research through partnerships with U.S. national laboratories, focusing on direct recycling methods for lithium-ion batteries. Direct recycling, if it works at scale, could skip some of the energy-intensive steps in traditional methods.
Looking ahead, Mercedes-Benz opened Europe's first battery recycling plant with an integrated mechanical-hydrometallurgical process in October 2024, making it the first car manufacturer worldwide to close the battery recycling loop with its own in-house facility. These are not pilot projects. These are real supply chain commitments.
On the North American side, consolidation has already started. Companies are merging and acquiring to create all-inclusive battery management solutions, signaling that established players see real value in owning the full lifecycle of EV batteries.
The Bigger Picture Beyond the Dollar Signs
Asia-Pacific was the largest region for EV battery recycling in 2025. That aligns with where most EV battery manufacturing happens today. But as Europe and North America build out their own recycling capacity, that regional balance could shift.
The real story here is not whether the market hits $23 billion or $67 billion by 2035. It is whether the infrastructure can scale fast enough to handle the wave of batteries that will start retiring in serious numbers later this decade.
So here is a question worth thinking about: if recyclers can recover and reuse critical metals from NMC batteries to meet the quality standards for new ones, why are we still mining so much of it fresh?
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